Evaluating Dylan Strome’s Performance Through The First 30 Games Of The Capitals 2022-23 Season

Coming off of a solid 2021-22 campaign with the Chicago Blackhawks where he posted 22 goals, 26 assists, and 48 points in 69 games, Dylan Strome was non-tendered by his former squad at the end of last season. In what … Continue reading →

Evaluating Dylan Strome’s Performance Through The First 30 Games Of The Capitals 2022-23 Season

Coming off of a solid 2021-22 campaign with the Chicago Blackhawks where he posted 22 goals, 26 assists, and 48 points in 69 games, Dylan Strome was non-tendered by his former squad at the end of last season.

In what was a painfully head-scratching move by the rebuilding Blackhawks, Strome entered the unrestricted free agency market. Luckily  for the Capitals and General Manager Brian MacLellan, signing Strome was one of the easiest low-risk, high-reward transactions of the summer.

The Capitals and Strome entered into a one-year contract worth $3.5M against the salary cap. As a nice cherry on top of the deal, Strome will be a restricted free agent after this season, allowing the Capitals the flexibility to extend Strome while having team control this summer.

Chicago’s brain-numbing decision to non-tender Strome was a stroke of luck for the Capitals with Nicklas Backstrom on the long-term injury list for the foreseeable future. They picked up a solid top-six center with wing flexibility who had experience playing with some of the top talent in the league in Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat.

In this post, we’ll be taking a dive into Strome’s performance so far this season. The statistics used in this post are courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference, and HockeyViz. If you’d like to learn more about the statistical terms used in this post, please check out our NHL Analytics Glossary.

Player Value

First up, let’s take a look at how Strome has performed in terms of Goals Above Replacement (GAR) and Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM). These metrics help us encapsulate the entire performance of a player outside of just individual scoring production.

Here’s how Strome’s GAR value stacks up against his peers in the forward group on the Capitals: [Click to enlarge]

Strome ranks second on the team among forwards in total GAR, trailing only Nic Dowd. Strome boasts a 3.3 offensive GAR, which ranks second on the team behind Conor Sheary. He is also top-four among Capitals forwards in even-strength defensive GAR (1.0), which is solid considering his typical linemates in Sheary (-1.3) and Alex Ovechkin (-1.8) struggle in that regard.

The good news here is, Strome has proven to be defensively reliable in a system and under a head coach that demands a solid 200-foot game from his players.

Now, let’s take a look at Strome’s RAPM:

During even strength, Strome fares pretty well in most regards, outside of Corsi Against per 60 minutes (CA/60). This isn’t exactly against expectations, since, as mentioned previously, he’s on a line with Sheary and Ovechkin who aren’t exactly defensive dynamos.

We’ll get more into the possession stats a bit later, but there’s certainly nothing concerning about Strome’s performance during even-strength play. One thing to note here is that his goals for per 60 (GF/60) trails a bit behind his expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60), which can be an indicator that an increase in offensive production may be on its way.

On the right side of the graphic above, we can see that Strome is very effective on the power play. This can also be proven by the fact that Strome is second on the Capitals’ forwards in power play offensive GAR, trailing only Conor Sheary.

Strome adds a ton of value, offensively, on the power play, and has shown to be rather interchangeable with Evgeny Kuznetsov on the half-wall or at the goal line extended below the face-off dot.

Here’s Strome’s isolated impact, courtesy of HockeyViz:

Long story short in the graphic above is that Strome provides a solid lift to the Capitals’ offensive xGF/60 during even-strength when accounting for his teammates, his competition, and coaching. A higher volume of shots is concentrated in the highest danger areas between the face-off dots in the low slot as well.

Possession Stats

Here’s how Strome has fared in possession stats over the past three seasons:

Strome is outperforming his Corsi For percentage (CF%), xGF%, and high-danger chance for percentage (HDCF%) this season, compared to the two prior. The increase in HDCF% rates are going to drive xGF% up, so it’s not surprising to see that Strome is posting a 51.71 xGF% this season, when the Capitals control the majority of high-danger chances while he’s on the ice.

The GF% is trailing quite a bit behind his xGF%, which should be an indicator that an increase in offensive production should soon follow.

It’s not statistically likely that the Capitals will continue to trend at a -10% differential between GF and xGF for the entirety of the season, especially as the roster gets healthier. The best may yet to come for Strome in that regard.

Conclusion

The Capitals’ acquisition of Dylan Strome might be one of the highest returns on investment in terms of player-value across the league from this off-season. Strome only makes $3.5M against the cap, so his positional flexibility and current performance should land him a long-term contract with the Capitals.

Strome has been consistently one of the best players on the ice for the Caps, and if these numbers trend in the direction we’re seeing, will likely stay that way for the remainder of the season.

By Justin Trudel